The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) publication, The Budget and Economic Outlook (pdf here) states that the current recession will end as soon as late 2009, even without the stimulus:
CBO anticipates that the current recession, which started
in December 2007, will last until the second half of 2009,
making it the longest recession since World War II.
This recession, however, may not result in the highest unemployment
rate. That rate, in CBO’s forecast, rises to 9.2 percent
by early 2010 (up from a low of 4.4 percent at the
end of 2006) but is still below the 10.8 percent rate seen
near the end of the 1981–1982 recession.
In preparing its economic forecast, CBO assumes that
current laws and policies governing federal spending and
taxes do not change. This forecast, therefore, does not
include the effects of a possible fiscal stimulus package.
On that basis, CBO anticipates that real GDP will drop
by 2.2 percent in calendar year 2009, a steep decline.
CBO expects the economy to begin a slow recovery in the
second half of 2009 and to grow by a modest 1.5 percent
in 2010 [emph added].
Food for thought. You might want to call or email your Senator and ask if he/she’s read the report. Especially since this prognosis is markedly different from some others that we’ve heard in DC over the last few days. . .